Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: January 1, 2027
23%chance, according to the market
Backed by $11K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 11 the market put this at 23%.
Oct 11now 23%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- January 1, 2027CurrentPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?23%$461K
- January 16, 2027Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?56%$11K
- February 1, 2027Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?60%$13K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-28 12:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket