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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Right now · Deadline: October 1, 2026

This market has resolved.

Yes

Every deadline for this question has passed.

How the price has moved

On Sep 1 the market put this at 10%.

Sep 1now 100%

Every deadline so far

Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.

  1. September 1, 2026Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No$1.6M
  2. October 1, 2026CurrentIsrael closes its airspace by September 30?Yes$3.6M

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Price as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket