Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: December 31, 2026
32%chance, according to the market
Backed by $16K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 27 the market put this at 16%.
Aug 27now 32%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- August 31, 2026Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?No$42K
- December 31, 2026CurrentWill the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?32%$16K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISWhat the Strait of Hormuz markets are actually pricingThe Hormuz reopening markets don't settle on news. They settle on one number published by IMF PortWatch — and until you know that number, you are trading the wrong question.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket