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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

Right now · Deadline: November 1, 2026

62%chance, according to the market

Backed by $88K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Oct 12 the market put this at 32%.

Oct 12now 66%

Every deadline so far

Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.

  1. October 16, 2026Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No$89K
  2. November 1, 2026CurrentWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?62%$277K
  3. December 1, 2026Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?89%$60K
  4. January 1, 2027Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?92%$65K

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Price as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket