Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: November 1, 2026
62%chance, according to the market
Backed by $88K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 12 the market put this at 32%.
Oct 12now 66%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- October 16, 2026Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No$89K
- November 1, 2026CurrentWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?62%$277K
- December 1, 2026Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?89%$60K
- January 1, 2027Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?92%$65K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISUkraine ceasefire ladder: pricing a window, not a dateThe ceasefire ladder is nested, so you can take a view on when rather than whether — with the loss capped at about 12% whichever way you are wrong.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket