Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Right now · Deadline: January 1, 2027
2%chance, according to the market
Backed by $91K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 11 the market put this at 2%.
Oct 11now 2%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- January 1, 2027CurrentWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%$44.6M
- July 1, 2027Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?7%$517K
- January 1, 2028Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?10%$3.5M
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
- GUIDEWhy did my order fill at a worse price than I saw?The price on the card is usually a midpoint, and nobody trades at the midpoint. You buy at the best offer on the book — on a thin market that gap costs more than fees.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket