Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
6%chance, according to the market
Backed by $8K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Sep 6 the market put this at 13%.
Sep 6now 6%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWhat the market prices for Trump's $5,000 dividendTrump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win Congress. The market prices it at 5c, and its rules don't require the sweep most readings of it assume.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-24 20:27 UTC · Source: Polymarket