Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
1%chance, according to the market
Backed by $13K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 0%.
Aug 4now 1%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISCan the AfD actually take power in Saxony-Anhalt?The AfD won 39 of 83 seats and the market prices its candidate at 41.5c. The final ballot needs a majority of votes cast, and the other parties also hold 39.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-23 13:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket