Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
96%chance, according to the market
Backed by $9K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 96%.
Aug 4now 96%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISCan the AfD actually take power in Saxony-Anhalt?The AfD won 39 of 83 seats and the market prices its candidate at 41.5c. The final ballot needs a majority of votes cast, and the other parties also hold 39.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-23 22:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket