U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
23%chance, according to the market
Backed by $13K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 7%.
Aug 4now 25%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-19 17:30 UTC · Source: Polymarket