Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
13%chance, according to the market
Backed by $10K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 23%.
Aug 4now 13%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
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- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-06 19:23 UTC · Source: Polymarket