Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Right now · Deadline: January 1, 2027
2%chance, according to the market
Backed by $108K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Oct 11 the market put this at 3%.
Oct 11now 2%
Every deadline so far
Polymarket re-lists this question at successive deadlines. Each row is one of them, with how it resolved.
- January 1, 2027CurrentPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?2%$26.2M
- July 1, 2027Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?10%$659K
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISUkraine ceasefire ladder: pricing a window, not a dateThe ceasefire ladder is nested, so you can take a view on when rather than whether — with the loss capped at about 12% whichever way you are wrong.
- COMPAREPolymarket vs. Kalshi — what's actually different?Kalshi takes dollars through a bank. Polymarket's global exchange settles in USDC on-chain. What that changes about fees, access and who can sign up at all.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
Follow this market, or take a position, right here on the web.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-22 22:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket