Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?
5%chance, according to the market
Backed by $12K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 4%.
Aug 4now 5%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-11 23:41 UTC · Source: Polymarket