Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
30%chance, according to the market
Backed by $11K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 32%.
Aug 4now 30%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
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Open in TelegramPrice as of 2026-08-11 19:41 UTC · Source: Polymarket