What are the 2027 French presidential election odds?

As of 7 October 2026 on Oddzy, the 2027 French presidential election odds put Marine Le Pen in front at 43.25¢ — a little under a coin flip — with Édouard Philippe at 17.5¢ and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5¢. The first round is on 18 April 2027 and the runoff on 2 May.

Prices are from Oddzy at 07:12 UTC on 7 October 2026. Each is the price of a share that pays $1 if that person becomes president and $0 if not. Polls are from the Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio, fieldwork 25–29 September 2026, 1,393 respondents. Market analysis, not financial advice, and not a political position.

What are the 2027 French presidential election odds right now?

Le Pen leads, and four names hold about 86¢ of the dollar. Across the board’s 111 candidate markets, $146 million has traded since they opened and $1.13 million in the 24 hours to this snapshot. The prices add up to 100.8¢.

Candidate	Wins presidency	On the ballot	Win if on ballot	Ifop first round
Marine Le Pen	43.25¢	91.5¢	47%	31–36%
Édouard Philippe	17.5¢	91¢	19%	21–23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	12.5¢	94.25¢	13%	14–17%
David Lisnard	12.35¢	72.5¢	17%	3.5%
François Hollande	3.7¢	43.5¢	9%	—
Gabriel Attal	2.15¢	18.5¢	12%	15–17%

Ifop’s ranges cover the different line-ups it tested; Philippe’s figure is for scenarios where he is the only centrist standing. “Win if on ballot” divides the first column by the second.

Why is Le Pen not a stronger favourite?

Because two things have to go right for her, and the market doubts both a little. It prices her at 91.5¢ to appear on the official candidate list at all, and at about 47% to win if she does.

The ballot discount is the court case. The Paris Court of Appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction on 7 July 2026 and cut her ineligibility to a term she had already served, which cleared her to run. It also imposed a year under electronic monitoring. She had said she would not campaign wearing a tag; her appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends that sentence until it rules, which French reporting expects to be too late to affect the campaign.

The 47% is the runoff. Le Pen leads every first-round scenario Ifop tested, but France’s two-round system means she then faces one opponent with everyone else’s voters to compete for. The market is saying the runoff is close to even.

Why does a mayor polling at 3.5% trade at 12¢?

Not because of the polls. David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, polled 3.5% in Ifop’s 25–29 September survey, and polls published in September put him between 2% and 5%; his price has been driven by a burst of buying since early September. Oddzy prices him at 12.35¢ to win — level with Mélenchon, who polls four times higher.

His contract is also the most traded serious candidate on the board: $137,196 in the 24 hours to this snapshot, more than Le Pen, Philippe and Mélenchon combined. Journal du Coin reported on 6 October that his price had been around 3¢ in early September, and that three accounts placed about 40% of the money bet on him between 2 and 6 October. A price driven by a handful of buyers is what those buyers think, not what the crowd thinks.

Attal is the opposite case. He polls 15–17% when Ifop tests him as the centre’s candidate, but the market gives him only 18.5¢ to be on the ballot at all — it expects Philippe, not Attal, to carry that lane.

How does the French election market decide who won?

Each winner market pays on whoever wins the election, runoff included, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it uses the official results from France’s Ministry of the Interior. If the result is not known by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2027, every named candidate resolves NO and the market settles on “Other”.

The ballot markets are narrower. They resolve on the official first-round candidate list published by the Constitutional Council. To get on it, a candidate needs 500 signatures from elected officials in at least 30 departments. What “consensus of credible reporting” means on election night is covered in how election prediction markets decide who won.

What does each side pay if you are right?

Held to the result, about seven months away, the returns look like this. These are midpoint prices; the ask you actually buy at is a little higher, and on thin contracts noticeably so.

Position	Price	Pays	Return if right
YES on Le Pen	43.25¢	$1	131%
NO on Le Pen	56.75¢	$1	76%
YES on Philippe	17.5¢	$1	471%
NO on Lisnard	87.65¢	$1	14%

The bottom row is the bet against the gap between price and polls. It is not free money. It ties up 87.65¢ for seven months to earn 12.35¢, and a candidate who surprises loses you all of it.

Before you take a position

Read the rules of the exact contract — a ballot market and a winner market on the same person can resolve opposite ways, and reading the resolution rules first takes two minutes. You do not have to hold to May: any of these can be sold before the market resolves, at the best bid. Size for a total loss. The full board is on the global elections topic page.