Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
5%chance, according to the market
Backed by $14K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 4 the market put this at 2%.
Aug 4now 5%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-08-30 13:24 UTC · Source: Polymarket