Noche UFC: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu (Lightweight, Prelims)
40%chance, according to the market
Backed by $12K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Aug 29 the market put this at 71%.
Aug 29now 40%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Rafa Garcia" if Rafa Garcia is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rongzhu at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026.
It will resolve to "Rongzhu" if Rongzhu is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- COMPAREPrediction markets vs. sportsbooks: the real differenceA sportsbook hides its margin inside the odds and trades against you. On a prediction market your counterparty is another trader and you can exit at a visible price.
- GUIDERead the resolution rules before you look at the priceMost settlement surprises are definitional, not predictive. You were right about the world and wrong about what the market counted — here's what to check before you buy.
- GUIDEHow a market resolves, and when you actually get paidSomeone proposes the outcome and posts a bond. Anyone can challenge it for two hours. Undisputed markets pay out the same day — disputed ones take days.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-12 04:26 UTC · Source: Polymarket