Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
3%chance, according to the market
Backed by $87K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
We started recording this market's daily price today — the history will build from here.
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- ANALYSISWho do the markets think will be Israel’s next prime minister?Eisenkot 43.5¢, Netanyahu 30.5¢, Bennett 14.5¢. What the Israel election market pays on, why most seats is not enough, and why a deadlock does not help Netanyahu.
- GUIDEHow do election prediction markets decide who won?Some election markets pay on a network race call, some on certification, some months later. How the rules decide, with live midterm and Brazil prices.
- ANALYSISCan the AfD actually take power in Saxony-Anhalt?The AfD won 39 of 83 seats and the market prices its candidate at 41.5c. The final ballot needs a majority of votes cast, and the other parties also hold 39.
Follow this market, or take a position, straight from Telegram.
Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-10-01 20:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket