Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
10%chance, according to the market
Backed by $91K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.
How the price has moved
On Sep 28 the market put this at 13%.
Sep 28now 10%
How this resolves
The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Guides
Background worth reading before you trade this.
- GUIDEIs buying 99¢ shares on Polymarket free money?A 99¢ share pays 1¢ if you’re right and loses 99¢ if you’re wrong. The break-even odds, the real annual return, and what makes near-certain shares go to zero.
- ANALYSISHow to trade the oil shock after the Saudi pipeline strikeWith Hormuz closed and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shut, WTI $110 jumped from 14.5c to 47c. A three-leg basket for the scenario the market prices, and where it loses.
- ANALYSISIran de-escalation basket: calm is priced, talks are notFive Iran contracts settling 30 September. Three are already decided and cost most of the money; two carry the whole trade. What $100 actually returns.
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Trade this marketPrice as of 2026-09-29 08:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket