Iran

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance, according to the market

Backed by $91K traded in the last 24 hours — this is a price people are staking money on, not a forecast.

How the price has moved

On Sep 28 the market put this at 13%.

Sep 28now 10%

How this resolves

The rules below decide who gets paid. Read them before the price — most surprises are definitional, not predictive.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Price as of 2026-09-29 08:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket