Iran escalation

Three ways the same thesis pays: direct US involvement, the regime falling, and the Strait staying disrupted through year-end.

3 positions · Editorial

Blended price

18%

The weighted average of the legs — what one unit of this basket costs as a probability.

This is not a parlay. Each position is bought and settles on its own — you don't need them all to come in, and you can sell any one of them without touching the rest.

What's in it

Each row is a separate position. The weight is that leg's share of whatever you put in.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?40%
Yes · 16% · December 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?35%
Yes · 7% · December 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?25%
No · 39% · December 31, 2026

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Price as of 2026-08-05 17:38 UTC