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Iran de-escalation

The calming-down case, priced five ways: both ceasefires holding through August, the Strait returning to normal traffic, Israeli airspace staying open, and oil falling back to $70.

5 positions · Editorial

Blended price

64%

The weighted average of the legs — what one unit of this basket costs as a probability.

If it comes good

$235.94 back on $100.00 — 2.36× — if every position hits.

This is not a parlay. Each position is bought and settles on its own — you don't need them all to come in, and you can sell any one of them without touching the rest.

What's in it

Each row is a separate position. The weight is that leg's share of whatever you put in.

Legs are placed as separate orders. If one can't fill at the price shown, the rest still go through and that leg's share stays in your balance.

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Price as of 2026-08-06 11:26 UTC